Opta reveals Champions League favorites – Real & PSG fall behind

28 February 2026

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Updated UCL title chances are out
Opta reveals Champions League favorites – Real & PSG fall behind

Opta updates probabilities

Opta Sports has recalculated the chances of winning the UEFA Champions League following the Round of 16 draw.

 

Top contenders

  • Arsenal – 27.4%

  • Bayern Munich – 14.3%

  • Liverpool – 12.8%

  • Manchester City – 10.8%

Other contenders

  • Barcelona – 7.7%

  • Chelsea – 6.9%

  • Newcastle United – 4.7%

  • Paris Saint-Germain – 4.6%

Surprisingly low rankings

  • Real Madrid – 2.8%

  • Sporting CP – 2.7%

  • Atletico Madrid – 2%

Underdogs

  • Tottenham Hotspur – 1.2%

  • Atalanta – 1.1%

  • Bayer Leverkusen – 0.5%

  • Bodo/Glimt – 0.4%

  • Galatasaray – 0.2%




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